Iran uses proxy militias in Iraq to pressure the US

Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have increased threats in recent days. Their increase in rhetoric appears tied to two developing trends. First of all, the IDF continues to fight in Gaza. Second, Israel-Hezbollah tensions are rising. The latest threat is to target US “interests” in Iraq. The Iranian-backed militias have already carried out more than 100 attacks since October 7. The attacks were coordinated after the Hamas attack on Israel. The goal was to create a regional war against Israel and the US.

The Iraqi militias reduced attacks after an attack on Jordan in January which killed three US service members. It appears that Iran chose to reduce tensions between February and June. “The Iraqi Resistance Coordination Council has announced that all American interests in Iraq and elsewhere in the region will be targeted if the Zionist regime attacks Lebanon,” the Iranian state news IRNA said.

The key parts of the threat include claims that the Iraqi militias will increase the “scope and quality” of their attacks “if the threat of the Zionist regime against Lebanon turns into reality.”

This is part of a growing chorus of Iranian regime activity that is designed to prevent a Hezbollah-Israel war. Iran doesn’t want Hezbollah, a key proxy, defeated. Therefore, Iran wants Hezbollah to be able to continue to attack Israel daily and Iran wants to deter Israel from attacking.

Iran’s true intentions

Iran is prodding militias to increase threats to the US in Iraq in order to see if the US will pressure Israel not to strike harder at Hezbollah. Iran is pleased with its current game plan in the region, creating a long slow war of attrition for Israel in Gaza and in Israel’s North where Hezbollah is waging a war inside Israel’s border. Iran has basically done to Israel what Israel tried to do in Syria with the “campaign between the wars” against Iranian entrenchment over the last decade.

If things persist like this, Iran will be able to claim it achieved a major victory.

IRNA media in Iran said that: “The Aqaba-Basra oil pipeline, which has cost Iraq a lot and has no economic benefit, may be the starting point for bringing Iraq into the evil plan that provides the ground for the normalization of relations with the Zionist regime.” This is an interesting and specific reference. In addition, Iraqi militia leader Qais Khazali has also made threats against the US. The Iraqi militias also claimed they carried out a drone attack against Israel this week.

According to IRNA, citing Al-Mayadeen, the umbrella group of Iraqi resistance factions announced in the early hours of Monday that it launched a drone attack on an Israeli target in the occupied port city of Umm al-Rashrash, also known as Eilat in response to the Zionist regime’s crimes against the people of Gaza,” the report said.

Seth Frantzman is the author of Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machine, Artificial Intelligence and the Battle for the Future (Bombardier 2021) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies.