Iran’s multi-front war on Israel has diminishing returns

Iranian proxies, including the Houthis, Iraqi militias, and Hezbollah carried out attacks targeting Israel and Israel-linked targets on June 24-25. However, the attacks are no longer a surprise. In some cases, the proxies have had some successes. However, their successes may have diminishing returns because Iran is now using all these groups to attack, but Iran cannot shift the equation against Israel.

Let’s take a look at what happened. The Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, which are called the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, said on Wednesday that they “attacked a vital Israeli target in the Port of Eilat with several drones.” The militias claimed that they were supporting Hamas in Gaza. “The Iraqi resistance fighters targeted the military air base of the Israeli regime in Eilat with a drone,” the statement from the group reads. They sent the statement to Iran’s state media, IRNA.

The IDF said “following the siren that sounded regarding a hostile aircraft infiltration in the area of Eilat, over the past hour a UAV that was identified approaching Israeli territory from the area of the Red Sea fell off the coast of Eilat. The UAV was monitored by IDF soldiers throughout the incident, and it did not cross into Israeli territory. During the incident, an interceptor was launched toward the UAV. The sirens regarding a hostile aircraft infiltration were activated in accordance with protocol.”

According to IRNA, the Iraqi militias have said that they will “intensify” their attacks so long as the war in Gaza continues. This comes as Israel is apparently aiming to reduce the intensity of fighting in Gaza.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah also claimed they targeted Israel over the last days. There have been drone attacks in several places. “Lebanon’s Hezbollah announced in a statement that in order to support the people of Gaza and support the Palestinian resistance, as well as in response to the Zionist regime’s encroachment on the Bekaa region, it has targeted the headquarters of Israeli army’s 91st Brigade in the ‘Nahl Ghirshum’ area with a number of suicide drones,” IRNA reported. Hezbollah has claimed to have attacked the 91st division in the past.

It often claims to target IDF bases in the North. The IRNA report claimed that Hezbollah targeted other sites in the North, including “Bayaz Belida” and “Barke Risha.” It was not clear where these sites are located.

Meanwhile, the Houthis said they attacked more ships. They claimed they targeted the container ship MSC SARAH V in the Arabian Sea. IRNA called it an “Israeli ship.” It was not clear why the Houthis believed the ship was linked to Israel. The Houthis used a ballistic missile in the attack.

The Houthis “emphasized that the Yemeni army’s operations will continue until the war against Gaza stops and the blockade of this strip is ended.” Hezbollah and the Iraqi militias used similar messaging, suggesting this is the message directly from Tehran. The Houthis carried out missile attacks on two other ships, they claimed. One was the Transworld Navigator ship, which the Houthis said they had already attacked. The Houthis also claimed they tried to target a ship named the tanker Stolt Sequoia that was in the Indian Ocean. This claim appears to be disputed.

A clear pattern

Overall, the pattern is clear. Iran is operationalizing these multiple fronts against Israel. In some areas, the groups claim success; in others, it is unclear if the claims match reality.

For Iran, the claims are what matters. They want to show they are backing Hamas in Gaza.

However, their attacks so far have diminishing returns. Israel continues operations in Gaza. Iran is not escalating. The Houthis have escalated slightly and Hezbollah also has in May and June. However, overall, the situation is not one of major escalation. That could change quickly.

For now, the perception is that Iran wants to portray its multifront war as successful. Iran is in the middle of presidential elections. It has many other issues to focus on for the next months.

Seth Frantzman is the author of Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machine, Artificial Intelligence and the Battle for the Future (Bombardier 2021) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies.