Analysis of IAEA Iran Verification and Monitoring Report — May 2024

Excerpt

This report summarizes and assesses information in the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA’s) quarterly report, dated May 27, 2024, Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015), including Iran’s compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Findings

• Iran can produce more weapon-grade uranium (WGU) since the IAEA’s last report in February 2024 due to increased stocks of enriched uranium.
• Iran’s stocks of enriched uranium and its centrifuge capacity combined are sufficient to make enough WGU, taken as 25 kilograms (kg) of WGU, for almost eight nuclear weapons in one month, ten in two months, 12 in three months, 13 in four months.
• With Iran’s growing enrichment experience and using only a portion of its stock of 60 percent highly enriched uranium (HEU), Iran could produce its first quantity of 25 kg of WGU in about one week. This breakout could be difficult for the IAEA to detect promptly, if Iran delayed inspectors’ access.