Blinken Delays Visit to Israel as Iran Threat Continues

Latest Developments

As the threat of an Iranian attack on Israel looms, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken delayed his plans to travel to the region on August 13, according to Axios reporter Barak Ravid. Blinken was expected to fly to Israel, with additional stops in Egypt and Qatar ahead of a round of Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal negotiations on August 15. In recent days, Blinken has expressed greater urgency to revive the stalled talks while trying to dissuade Iran from attacking Israel in response to the assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh on July 31.  Meanwhile U.S. Middle East envoy Brett McGurk is already in the region, having arrived in Cairo on August 13, with plans to visit Doha. U.S. Special Envoy Amos Hochstein is also traveling to Israel and Lebanon. 

While Israel and the United States have observed preparations for an attack by Iran and its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah, Reuters reported — citing three Iranian officials — that an attack may be delayed pending the ceasefire negotiations and prevented if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza.

Expert Analysis

“Iran is counting on American pressure on Israel to restrain a retaliation and surrender to more Hamas demands to get a ceasefire on terms favorable to the Tehran axis. If this were a regional tour threatening consequences for Iran instead of applying pressure on Israel, the administration might actually achieve the regional de-escalation it seeks.” — Richard Goldberg, FDD Senior Advisor

“Hamas’s utter disregard for Palestinian lives has convinced the terrorist group that Israel needs a ceasefire more than it does. Meanwhile, Hamas is hoping the fear of an Iranian strike can help tilt the ceasefire terms in its favor.” — David May, FDD Research Manager and Senior Research Analyst

Hamas Refuses to Participate in Talks

State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said during an August 13 press briefing that a ceasefire deal is “vitally important to the region. It is time for the remaining hostages to be returned home and that includes the American citizens.” While Israel has stated that it will send its delegation to the negotiations, Hamas — which selected Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the October 7 massacre in Israel, as its new leader following Haniyeh’s death — announced on August 11 that it would not participate. Patel said during his briefing that the United States had received assurances from Qatar that it will “work to have Hamas represented.”

A Hamas official told Reuters that the terrorist organization is demanding the implementation of the original plan proposed by U.S. President Joe Biden instead of continued negotiations. Hamas has previously rejected agreements over Israel’s insistence on maintaining control of the Philadelphi Corridor — the border between Gaza and Egypt through which Hamas receives weapons and other supplies  — as well as screening Palestinians returning to the northern half of the Gaza Strip to prevent Hamas from regrouping. Israel has also demanded that at least 30 living hostages be returned as part of the first stage of the deal, whereas Hamas has previously said it could deliver around half that number.

Related Analysis

“Hamas Terrorist Released Through Ceasefire Deal Strikes Again in West Bank,” FDD Flash Brief

“Hamas Shuns New Talks on Gaza Ceasefire,” FDD Flash Brief

“Hamas Rejects Proposed Israeli Changes to Ceasefire Deal,” FDD Flash Brief