Expert Panel Rejects Claims of Famine in Northern Gaza

Latest Developments

The Famine Review Committee (FRC), a body consisting of five prominent scholars of food security and nutrition, on June 8 rejected as not “plausible” the conclusion that northern Gaza has entered a state of famine. The same body concluded in mid-March that “famine is now projected and imminent” in northern Gaza by the end of May, a finding that spurred the UN, media outlets, and numerous humanitarian organizations to warn that thousands in Gaza would die of hunger if a ceasefire were not reached immediately.

The FRC conducts reviews on behalf of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), the premier global famine monitoring initiative structured as a partnership between governments, international organizations, and NGOs. The FRC rejected claims of famine in northern Gaza on the grounds that such assertions ignored or underestimated the value of both commercial sources of food and certain forms of humanitarian aid. The committee concluded that flows of aid and the availability of food increased significantly in March and April and “that nearly 100 percent of daily kilocalorie requirements were available for the estimated population of 300,000 people in April, even using conservative calculations.”

Expert Analysis

“Despite pervasive warnings in March and April of an imminent famine in northern Gaza, the conclusion that a famine has been averted received minimal attention from the same media organizations who sounded the alarm. Nor has there been much recognition that Israeli efforts to accelerate the provision of aid were responsible for preventing a disaster that many considered unavoidable.” —  David Adesnik, FDD Senior Fellow and Director of Research

“Unfounded claims of famine in Gaza aren’t innocuous cases of excessive caution. The libelous charge is central to efforts to punish Israel for fighting against Hamas, the genocidal, Iran-backed terrorist group that carried out the October 7 massacre.” — David May, FDD Research Manager and Senior Research Analyst

What Counts as a Famine?

The IPC has concluded only twice since its founding in 2004 that the available evidence would support a declaration of famine: once in Somalia in 2011 and once in South Sudan in 2017. Both declarations applied to limited populations within those countries, not the populations as a whole. The IPC recognizes five phases of food insecurity, with the last three progressing from  “crisis” to “emergency”  and then “catastrophe/famine.” According to the IPC, a famine exists when three benchmarks have been surpassed: one in five households faces “an extreme lack of food,” 30 percent of children under the age of five suffer from acute malnutrition, and starvation is causing the death of one out of every 500 people in the affected area each day, or one out of every 250 children under five.

USAID-Funded Body Advocated for a Famine Declaration

The FRC conducted its analysis in response to a submission from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), a food security monitoring initiative the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) established in 1985 and continues to fund. While acknowledging that “The availability of food in northern Gaza increased markedly in March and April,” FEWS NET assessed that this covered only “an estimated 59-63 percentof the northern Gazan population’s kilocalorie needs” in April. The FRC, by contrast, estimated that the available food would have covered 109-153 percent of daily calorie intake requirements in the same period.

Related Analysis

“Terrorists Attack U.S. Pier Under Construction Off Gaza Coast,” FDD Flash Brief

“Israel Increases Humanitarian Aid Transfers to Gaza,” FDD Flash Brief

“Hamas Warns Gazans Against Cooperating With Israel on Aid Delivery,” FDD Flash Brief